There is almost universal acknowledgement amongst scientists that sooner or later the planet will be hit by a viral epidemic that will have all the potency of a
medieval plague. Experts are equally adamant that when that day arrives we shall be powerless to cope. Most worrying of all is that the next great plague is well overdue.
We have to remember that mass epidemics are nothing new. At the end of the First World War a disastrous flu outbreak killed more people than four years of
fighting. Of special concern is the failure to discover why this flu strain suddenly mutated to become so deadly. The certain truth is that sooner or later there will be another flu pandemic
of similar proportions. But flu is by no means our only concern.
Out of nowhere.
The astonishing fact is that since the last World War we have witnessed the disturbing rise of numerous diseases that appear to have come out of nowhere. AIDS is
a prime example, but even this palls into insignificance behind the spectre of other more deadly infections. Many of these are extremely potent and only very careful handling has prevented
them from gaining a much wider foothold. Eventually however there will come a time when even the very closest safeguards will prove inadequate and when that day arrives it will represent one
of the greatest challenges the human race has ever faced.
Two steps ahead.
Perhaps the eeriest aspect of all this is the manner in which viruses and other diseases are able to adapt themselves to stay several steps ahead of our attempts
to eradicate them. We barely have time to acquire immunity to one strain of virus when another more potent one takes its place. The same can also be said of medicines used to combat certain
types of disease.
It is an established fact that increasingly higher levels of medication are needed to combat new strains of illness. So high in fact that we are now approaching
the threshold of safety. Meanwhile we are left with the mystery of how microscopic organisms that cannot be seen are able to conduct themselves in a manner that almost appears to be
intelligently motivated. In simple language it means that the harder we attack them, the harder they respond.
Another factor sure to have immense health implications for the world of the future is global warming.
In a world of fast changing climate, diseases once restricted to certain parts of the globe will impose themselves on others. This is already well under way. In the USA outbreaks of West Nile Fever have occurred over two consecutive years, and in Saudia Arabia and Yemen there have been serious outbreaks of what has become known as Rift Vally Fever. This is usually confined to mainland Africa, but is now broadening its area of infection quite dramatically.
There is no doubt that if global warming continues to gather pace this migration of tropical diseases including malaria will extend far to the north, and pose a
definite threat across the whole of Europe. Ironically the very convenience of modern travel is also likely to be the conduit through which future epidemics will spread like wildfire. In view
of this we cannot remain complacent, The threats are real. Sooner or later there will be an outbreak of a super virus that will exact colossal casualties. Itís just a question of time!
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